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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest improvement is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However this year's race is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still